First two weeks of August looking very damp and cool (at times) in the South East.

Over the last few days data has continued to show a very wet weather pattern (and cooler as well) setting up for the central half of the country to the east/south east.

GEFS1-5 day 500mb
Tall ridge just off the western North American coast with another ridge located over the south west Atlantic ocean

In the image above (1-5 day mid level flow) we see a weakness in between a strong ridge off the west coast and another ridge over the Atlantic ocean. In this set up fronts will come down from Canada in a north west flow over the Mid west and Plains states, these fronts will likely stall as they encounter the ridge off the south east US coast leading to day after day of stormy weather. This doesn’t look to change much in the 6-10 day forecast and 11-15 day outlook as seen in the next images.

GEFS 6-10 day 500mb
August 7th – 12th
GEFS 11-15 day 500mb
August 12th – 17th

Below is the GFS forecast total rainfall through mid month, each image is from a different day of the same model forecast, thus giving some higher confidence in a wetter cooler weather pattern.

Take the numbers with a gain of salt the idea here is repeated fronts stalling somewhere in the mid section of the country to the south east at times reaching into the North East.

GEFS precip anom 5-11 days
Forecast model rain fall anomaly (departure from normal) days 5-11
GEFS precip anom week 2
Days 9-15 rainfall anomaly

Climate Prediction center also agrees with a wet pattern that should see the coolest of temp readings in the central part of the country thanks to large high pressure system from Canada.


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