Weekly Outlook (August 6-13)

A very wet week is in store for a lot of people from the Southern Plains eastward as a stalled frontal boundary will be the focus for heavy rain and storms off and on throughout the week.

As high pressure expands westward from the Atlantic and also tries to move south eastward from Canada the stage will be set for a wet week as a series of upper level disturbances ride atop the moist boundary and with quite a bit of atmospheric moisture heavy rain will be the result.

The two images above are Hi Res forecast simulated radar for 5 AM Monday (left) and 7 PM Monday (right image) below is the rainfall output from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM Tuesday.

RainfallthruTuesday morning
Rainfall from the Hi Res model through 2 AM Tuesday.

Weather Prediction Center rain total 1 – 3 day forecast below.

1-3dayrainfall

While we can’t take the Hi Res forecast rain fall for what it shows, the general idea is for heavy rain from Texas to the western Carolina’s and another area of heavy rain along coastal Carolina. In the next image we can see the surface fronts Wednesday through Sunday.

3-7daySFC
Wednesday through Sunday forecast surface features we can see the front stalling in the south bringing rounds of heavy rain fall.

With a front hanging around and ample moisture we will see some hefty rain fall totals by the end of the week. This is shown in the forecast image below of above normal rain fall through next Sunday August 13.

1-7dayrain

That is a lot of rain and though some places could use the rain, this much in a week will likely lead to flooding in some areas. As one might expect with all the rain around temperatures will held down as well.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_1-5day
1-5 day temperature departure from normal.

 

 

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