Nate will bring heavy rain and tornado threat to NC/VA

Good evening,

We are watching what will be Nate starting in the Gulf of Mexico. Landfall between Louisiana and the Panhandle of Florida is likely and both show models concentrated over the western Carolinas and Virginia.

A few issues are likely with this storm, and I am going to tell u comparison tracks. One being Hurricane Opal and Hurricane Ivan.  See images below

Both Opal and Ivan brought tornadoes to North Carolina and Virginia as we remained east of the center of the hurricane. And as of now both the Euro and GFS forecast models (as well as Canadian and other hurricane models) show this to occur with Nate.

Timing (early forecast)

Sunday

  • Rain picks up

Sunday Night Into Early Monday

  • tornado risk increases
  • Heavy Rain 1-3”

Monday

  • Tornado High WInd and Heavy Rain threat
  • Winds 20-40 mph with heavy gusts are possible

 

For more information on Hurricane Opal and Hurricane Ivan, check outhese links: https://www.weather.gov/media/rnk/past_events/Ivan_Summary_10th_Anniv.pdfhttps://www.weather.gov/mob/opal

We will watch this very carefully. Please get weather aware now

Dean D Davison

Meteorologist

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